Comments on: Let’s Have a look at Saanich – Gulf Islands

By: bluegreenblogger

bluegreenblogger — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 15:49:52 +0000

Oemmissions: Thanks for your comment. Looking at SGI from Toronto, I would have to say that with the information available to myself, I concurr with your conclusion. I bet that Brionny is wishing she could take back a few things, like Rene’s endorsement. This race just became a Green CPC contest. (Assuming SGI is the target riding.)

By: Oemissions

Oemissions — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 14:22:10 +0000

I live in the SGI.
I consider myself “green”, and have from time to time been a member of the GREEN party. Last year, holding my nose, I joined the LIBS to vote in Briony. Scads of people did this, many from the NDP.
As the prestigious Margaret Fulford said at Briony
s nomination: “WEll, you might be wondering what an old prairie socialist like me is doing up here at a podium to introduce a candidate for the Liberal Party….”
Because Briony is supporting the excellent nominee Renee Heatherington, people will respect her choice.
Also, the NDP might come up with a stunning candidate as well. All this assures that Elizabeth, who we all have revered,will NOT succeed in winning votes.
The NDP and Libs will not back off.
Elizabeth would have to get about 25,000 votes or more to defeat Lunn.
I’ll bet my most prized possession, my electric bike,that she will not do this.
There has GOT to be some other place that Elizabeth has a better chance.
She is needed in the House, but as I have said, she won’t get there from here.

By: Oh Where, Oh Where, Will Elizabeth May Run? « Kersten’s Kolumn

Oh Where, Oh Where, Will Elizabeth May Run? « Kersten’s Kolumn — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 20:38:41 +0000

[...] Nova – the bets are on that May will run in Saanich-Gulf Islands. Both Mark Taylor and BlueGreenBlogger along with myself previously stated our beliefs that this would be the chosen riding. It has a [...]

By: david drew

david drew — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 22:28:01 +0000

Yes, I agree with most of what you say. What I find a shame is that by running here she takes away a good chance for Renee. Briony did not lose by very much, she had 25,367 to Lunn’s 27,988 and there were 3,667 votes to the NDP that didn’t have a candidate running. Maybe I too am deceiving myself. I would love to see Lunn defeated and to have an MP that is part of a ‘new’ governing party.

By: bluegreenblogger

bluegreenblogger — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 20:41:58 +0000

Sure the scenario looks far fetched. That`s because it`s not fleshed out. No less than for the hockey team, it`s how the tasks are completed, not naming the tasks that counts. Elizabeth May is very eloquent, and compelling personality. She is a very strong Candidate, and no-one who hears her speak at length will dismiss her as you seem to think they will. This will be a very tough campaign, and likely she will lose, but the margin will be a lot closer than you seem to think. There are a plethora of reasons for people to vote one way or another, and there are a lot of chunks of electors who will dump their first choice with some exposure to Elizabeth. That’s why I say there will be a shortfall of 6,000 votes or so. It’s silly to pretend that she’s a GPC candidate of Lewis’ calibre, she isn’t. If they don’t win, it will be because they don’t target the right people with the right message. The GPC will fail where they always fail. The ground war will be ineffectual. Elizabeth May, and her friends and allies DO actually make decisions based upon warm and fuzzy feelings instead of data. They are prepared to deceive themselves, as do so many activists from every Party in ridings where there is no hope. I don’t. There are only a couple of ridings in the country where she’d be my odds on favourite, and Saanich isn’t one of them. I do know that if I were tasked with managing this campaign, then it would be no-holds barred, and I would go for Lunn’s throat. With a little luck, that might make up the plurality for the GPC. I won`t be involved though, so it`ll all depend on whoever runs the campaign, and the choices made over the next month or so.

By: david drew

david drew — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 02:37:53 +0000

Bold plan indeed! They would need to pick off about 15,000 voters all told and for is perceived in this riding as a one issue party. The voters in this riding could likely care less if they were the first to elect a GPC member. They are mostly concerned about having someone speak to issues and be able to act or have their party act. They are not interested in someone barking from the sidelines. The scenario of EMay winning sounds like the hopeful laments of an out of it hockey team thinking ” well if we win the next x number of games and y loses w number of games and z beats w for two and o ties r and then we ‘might have a chance to get in the playoffs’.
I went through the whole buzz of Andrew Lewis in 2004, and supported him, huge buzz, what a disappointment that was. Most of the extra support came from NDP supporters. It turned out that there was not a huge amount of support for the GPC just a lot of spin. No wonder people are not bothering to vote. Emay needs to find a riding where there is a small number of voters and have a large, very large team convince them to vote GPC. That will be the only way she will get in. The voters in this riding will respond very poorly to young earnest door knockers and long time commited activists trying to sell them a GPC message.

By: bluegreenblogger

bluegreenblogger — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 20:00:33 +0000

Brionny had the absolute best possible scenario in 2008, and didn’t come close. IMHO Something dramatically different would be needed to effect a Liberal win. The Greens though might just be able to pick off enough CPC voters to win. It will take a bold campaign plan, an army of volunteers, and a big name candidate, which obviously Elizabeth May is. I’m not saying she’ll win. I doubt she will, but if some analytical, hardass, win-at-all-costs campaign team is put together, then this riding is winnable by the GPC leader. re-read the post, or browse the rest of the blog, and you’ll see that I have no interest whatsoever in wishful thinking. If I say that it can be done, it’s because I have thought through the steps and resources required, and concluded there is just enough possibility to say maybe. Unless a superstar Liberal shows up, then Elizabeth May has a better chance than Renee.

By: david dreW

david dreW — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 19:35:13 +0000

You are so right about the free run in Central Nova and you can be assured it won’t happen again, anywhere.
I do disagree re: a Liberal not winning in SGI, a lot more of a chance than a GPC. I don’t think it is Liberal ‘needs’ that have to be taken into account it should be GPC needs and running the leader of the GPC and hoping she will get elected just because she is The leader is wishful thinking (foolish too)

By: bluegreenblogger

bluegreenblogger — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 14:32:49 +0000

I for one don’t know anything about the poll you are referring to. I don’t know what questions were asked, or how it was designed. It wouldn’t particularly surprise me if it was as useless as you indicate, but I simply have no factual basis to judge. You should not be losing so much sleep about the apparant damage to your’ candidate. There is little hope of a Liberal being elected in SGI, no matter who runs or doesn’t. When you comment on a Green blog, you surely don’t expect sympathy for a plea to garotte ourselves, and take Liberal needs into account when we make our decisions do you? I think it was stupid of Dion to allow the GPC a free run in Central Nova, because it didn’t serve the interests of his Party. Liberals should do whatever they can no less than should we. It’s how representative democracy works.

By: david drew

david drew — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 22:36:48 +0000

Yes,Renee Heatherington and what a shame it would be if Emay entry into the SGI riding knocked them both out. Which it will, the numbers just will not work regardless how many volunteers bang on doors. Also nobody has commented on the faulty poll that was done, the one looking at a comparison of Emay and Lunn and then saying she, Emay, has a lot of support when nobody else but those two were mentioned. As Mentioned before that is just plain dumb and a good reason to question the Greens strategists.